What does "expected value" (EV) mean for a casino bonus?

Expected value is the average result you'd get if you played the exact same bonus offer thousands of times. It combines the bonus amount, the wagering requirement, and the game's house edge into a single €-value estimate. A bonus can look generous (400%, 500%) and still have a negative EV if the wager requirement is high enough — the calculator makes that visible instead of hiding it behind a big percentage.

Why is RTP part of the calculation?

Every wagered € isn't lost — on average, the game returns RTP% of it back to you (that's the definition of RTP). What you actually lose per € wagered is the house edge, i.e. 1 minus RTP. A 96% RTP slot has a 4% house edge; a 98% RTP game has only 2%. Since you have to wager the full requirement to unlock the bonus, the game's house edge directly determines how much of the bonus that wagering will cost you.

Why does the calculator sometimes show a negative number?

Because that's mathematically accurate for a lot of bonuses. If you multiply a high wager (say 50x) by a typical house edge (4%), you get 200% — meaning the wagering alone is expected to cost twice the bonus amount. A negative EV doesn't mean you can't win; it means that, averaged over many attempts, the bonus is expected to lose you money once you factor in the wagering. It's exactly the kind of bonus this tool is meant to flag.

Should I only ever pick the bonus with the highest EV?

EV is the single clearest number for comparing bonuses mathematically, but it's not the only thing that matters — withdrawal speed, minimum deposit, game selection, and how much you actually plan to deposit all play a role too. Use the EV as a reality check on the marketing percentage, not as the only factor in your decision.

Free tool

Bonus Value Calculator

A 400% bonus with a 50x wager can be worth less than a 100% bonus with a 20x wager. This calculator shows the real expected value in €, not just the percentage on the banner.

Published on August 8, 2026

Updated on August 8, 2026

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Information verified by experts

Secure Site

Encrypted HTTPS connection

Certified Expert

8+ years of verified experience

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All casinos tested personally

Last updated: August 8, 2026 - All information is up to date and verified

Verified Sources & References

[1]

Malta Gaming Authority (MGA)

Source: mga.org.mt

Maltese gambling regulatory authority

[2]

UK Gambling Commission

Source: gamblingcommission.gov.uk

British gambling commission

[3]

Curaçao Gaming Control Board

Source: curacaolicensing.com

Curaçao gambling regulator

All sources are verified and regularly updated to ensure the accuracy of the information.

Alexandre Dubois

Online Casino & Bonus Expert

Last updated: 6/27/2026

Learn more →

Free tool

Bonus Value Calculator

A 400% bonus with a 50x wager can be worth less than a 100% bonus with a 20x wager. This calculator shows the real expected value in €, not just the percentage on the banner.

Compare up to 3 bonuses

Bonus amount (€)

Wager (x)

Game RTP (%)

Max cashout (€, optional)

Expected value

-€60.00

Bonus amount (€)

Wager (x)

Game RTP (%)

Max cashout (€, optional)

Expected value

€20.00

Best value

EV = bonus × (1 − wager × house edge), house edge = 1 − RTP

Default 96% (typical online slot). Lower it for games with a bigger house edge.

This is a statistical estimate based on average outcomes over many sessions, not a guarantee for any single session — variance means you can still win or lose more than the calculated EV on a given day. It assumes every wagered € counts 100% toward the requirement; check each casino's terms, since some games are weighted less or excluded.

FAQ

Published on August 8, 2026

Updated on August 8, 2026

Verified Content

Information verified by experts

Secure Site

Encrypted HTTPS connection

Certified Expert

8+ years of verified experience

Real Tests

All casinos tested personally

Last updated: August 8, 2026 - All information is up to date and verified

Verified Sources & References

[1]

Malta Gaming Authority (MGA)

Source: mga.org.mt

Maltese gambling regulatory authority

[2]

UK Gambling Commission

Source: gamblingcommission.gov.uk

British gambling commission

[3]

Curaçao Gaming Control Board

Source: curacaolicensing.com

Curaçao gambling regulator

All sources are verified and regularly updated to ensure the accuracy of the information.

Alexandre Dubois

Online Casino & Bonus Expert

Last updated: 6/27/2026

Learn more →